Outlook for Baker Mayfield
By: Jake Rajala
Baker Mayfield proved his worth as a first overall pick last season. He threw 41 touchdowns, which was tied with Lamar Jackson for second. It was also a career-high figure. His second best single-season touchdown figure was 28 touchdowns.
Only Joe Burrow threw more touchdowns (with 43) last season. Baker also threw for 4,500 passing yards, which was third in the league. Baker was a bit of a double edge sword. He threw 16 interceptions, which was the most thrown in the league. Baker had a PFF grade of 86, which was ninth among QBs!
Baker’s 2024 season reminds me of Matthew Stafford’s 2021 season, where Stafford threw 41 touchdowns to 17 ints.
Not only did Baker put up huge numbers, but he did so without Chris Godwin for 10 games! Plus, the Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the 2025 draft.
Ceiling
His new weapon and Godwin’s return are key reasons that Baker can go the distance. Heavy. pegs Baker as a dark-horse MVP candidate, while Yardbarker states that Baker is poised to set records in 2025.
The Bucs run game ranked fifth last season. This really keeps the Bucs balanced and it opens up the play-action game.
Baker plays in one of the easiest divisions in the NFL. The Saints play with a rookie QB, the Falcons play with a second-year QB, and the Panthers play with a third year QB.
I believe that Baker could throw 45 touchdowns and 5,000 passing yards. In the process, I believe he could throw 20 ints.
Floor
Baker’s two best friends last season were Liam Coen and Mike Evans. Well, Liam is enjoying the sun in Jacksonville, while Evans isn’t quite the same weapon he once was. They had to spoon feed him 1k yards.
Baker can also put up godly numbers without throwing 20 ints. He doesn’t have to be Jameis Winston. The Bucs defense ranked 17th in PPG allowed last season. It isn’t a Championship-level defense.
I believe that Baker’s floor is him throwing 25 touchdowns and 4,000 passing yards. I could see him throwing 23 ints, too.
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Baker could be an All-Pro in this offense. Just as the Detroit Lions witnessed Jared Goff carry a chip on his shoulder, Baker has clearly played with rage. Baker may make mistakes, but he has a knack for being clutch.
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